The Belmont Stakes, the oldest and longest of the Triple Crown races, is back to its traditional role as the last leg of the series. The “Test of Champions” typically has been run at 1½ miles since 1926, but last year it was shortened to 1⅛ miles because it was held as the first leg of the Triple Crown amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Medina Spirit, the embattled Kentucky Derby winner, will skip this race; his trainer, Bob Baffert, was banned by the New York Racing Association pending further investigation of the horse’s failed post-Derby drug test. The surprise winner of the Preakness, Rombauer, drew post No. 3 for the Belmont and is 3-1 on the morning line. Essential Quality, fourth in the Kentucky Derby, is the favorite at 2-1, and the favorites appear likely to produce this year’s winner. That being the case, bettors should consider a restrained approach to exotic bets for Saturday’s race.
Post time: Saturday, 6:49 p.m. Eastern, NBC.
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No. 1 Bourbonic (15-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Kendrick Carmouche
This dark bay Bernardini colt shocked everyone with a last-to-first effort under Carmouche at 72-1 odds to record an upset in the nine-furlong Grade II Wood Memorial. His effort in the Kentucky Derby, however, fell flat as he finished 13th.
He is likely to underwhelm again in the Belmont. Bernardini never won past the classic distance of 1¼ miles despite his sire, A.P. Indy, taking the Belmont Stakes in 1992. None of his progeny have won a graded stakes on dirt at the 1½-mile distance, either.
No. 2 Essential Quality (2-1)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Luis Saez
The Kentucky Derby favorite is the only son of Tapit in this field, making him a bona fide contender. Since 2013, 10 Tapit colts have lined up for the Belmont Stakes; three have won, and four others finished no worse than third.
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No. 3 Rombauer (3-1)
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Jockey: John Velazquez
The Preakness winner is short on inherited speed and long on inherited stamina, a precarious combination for this race. Over the past seven times the Belmont has been run at 1½ miles, horses with this type of pedigree are 0 for 16, with just one finish in the money — by Destin, who was second in 2016.
No. 4 Hot Rod Charlie (7-2)
Trainer: Doug O'Neill
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Hot Rod Charlie, third by a length behind Medina Spirit in the Kentucky Derby, won the Grade II Louisiana Derby in March and should be a strong contender Saturday. This son of Oxbow (second in the Belmont in 2013) has a good balance of inherited speed and stamina that typically allows for a strong showing at 1½ miles.
No. 5 France Go de Ina (30-1)
Trainer: Hideyuki Mori
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Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
Besides a Triple Crown victory, this horse’s connections have a chance to win a $1 million bonus offered to any Japan-based horse who wins the Belmont Stakes — and to deliver Mori’s first victory in North America. And while Mori thinks his colt is bred to stretch out to 12 furlongs successfully, his pedigree suggests otherwise.
France Go de Ina inherited seven times as much speed as he did stamina, a dosage index at a level that goes unrewarded at the Belmont.
No. 6 Known Agenda (6-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: TBA
Known Agenda, winner of the Grade I Florida Derby in March, is no stranger to the New York circuit. Pletcher’s colt broke his maiden in his second start, traveling nine furlongs at Aqueduct, and followed that up with a third-place finish in the Grade II Remsen Stakes in December at the same track.
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Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., was thrown from his mount and injured during a race Thursday and will not ride Known Agenda in the Belmont as planned. His replacement will be named Saturday, Pletcher said Friday.
No. 7 Rock Your World (9-2)
Trainer: John Sadler
Jockey: Joel Rosario
The winner of the Grade I Santa Anita Derby is built for the 1½-mile slog at the Belmont. The two-time stakes winner inherited plenty of stamina from his mare line, which includes 2003 Belmont winner Empire Maker, and has shown the speed necessary for a win this weekend. Consider him a major contender.
No. 8 Overtook (20-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Manny Franco
It took three tries for Overtook to graduate to the non-maiden ranks, and he followed that up with two solid efforts in graded stakes races: a second-place finish in the Grade III Withers Stakes at Aqueduct and a third-place finish in the Grade III Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park.
Don’t dismiss him off those efforts. He could be a threat Saturday at 12 furlongs. This son of Curlin (second in the Belmont in 2007) has stamina influence from grandsire A.P. Indy on the bottom of his pedigree, and it could be enough to hit the board for the third time in a row.
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